The Risks from Sea Level Rise – assessments from Australia & Cape Town

Reuters reported today on an Australian parliamentary committee’s finding that $137bn worth of property in this island continent was at risk from rising sea levels and more frequent storms. 80 percent of Australia’s 21 million people live on the coast and authorities are split on whether to adopt a policy of retreat or defence against rising seas.

The social and economic impact of sea level rise was the topic at our recent Cambridge Resilience Forum session (get the podcast here). A 2008 risk assessment done for the City of Cape Town concluded that within the next 25 years there is an 85% probability of 60,9km2 (2% of the Metro area) being covered by sea for a short period, with an accompanying expected loss of real estate value estimated at just under R20bn. As Prof Geoff Brundrit explained, these estimates are predicated on only a 15 centimeters rise in the sea level. Even such a relatively small rise changes the frequency and intensity of extreme storm events and this causes the damage. A more dramatic sea level rise, when the polar ice caps melt for example, causing coastal areas to be underwater permanently, is not even included in current estimates for the next 30-50 years.

Gregg Oelofse of the City of Cape Town elucidated some of the challenges for government. The possible mitigation strategy of building more storm walls and barriers can actually increase the impact of storm events. The Cape Town study done in 2008 was one of the first in the world and has placed the City on the forefront of planning and thinking about these issues.

Similar to the Australian report, the Forum session also highlighted the importance and complexity of legal liability and insurance cover related to climate change and sea level rise. At the Cape Town event Herman de Meyer, underwriting specialist of Santam, emphasised that insurers need to collaborate with scientists and policy makers to better understand these risks.

The 16 October edition of Engineering News carried an article on the sea level rise Forum session. Read the online article here…

Podcast: Forum sea level rise

A recording of the Cambridge Resilience Forum event on Sea Level Rise held on 30 September 2009 in Cape Town. The format of the event was a panel discussion, moderated by Peter Willis of CPSL. The panelists were:

• Prof. Geoff Brundrit – Special Advisor on Oceans and Climate Change for the National Department of Environmental Affairs
• Gregg Oelofse – Environmental Resource Management, City of Cape Town
• Anton Cartwright – Economist, Econologic
• Herman de Meyer – Underwriting specialist, Santam

To download the podcast click here… or click ‘play ‘below to listen.

The R20bn risk – discussion on impacts of Sea Level Rise

As part of the Cambridge Resilience Forum, we present a Forum Discussion on:

The Financial and Human Impact of Sea Level Rise
Wednesday 30 September 2009
17:30 – 19:30
Townhouse Hotel, 60 Corporation Street, Cape Town

Some climate scientists believe that we may have underestimated the tempo of sea level rise. Sea level rise could have a severe human and financial impact on low-lying coastal areas. What is the latest scientific evidence indicating? How will sea level rise impact property investment and insurance? How are we going to deal with disaster impact and the mass resettlement of people?

These are just some of the questions that will be discussed by our expert panel consisting of:

• Prof Geoff Brundrit – Special Advisor on Oceans and Climate Change, National Department of Environmental Affairs
• Anton Cartwright - Economist, Stockholm Environmental Institute
• Rian Mouton – Santam Facultative Reinsurance
• Gregg Oelofse – Environmental Resource Management, City of Cape Town

A 2008 sea-level rise risk assessment done on behalf of the City of Cape Town concluded that within the next 25 years there is a 85% probability of 60,9km2 (2% of Metro area) being covered by sea for a short period. The accompanying expected loss of real estate value is just under R20bn.

The report concludes:
“The sovereign risk of sea-level rise for the City of Cape Town is significant and will increase in the next 25 years regardless of reductions in greenhouse gas”.

This importance of gaining understanding on sea level rise therefore cannot be over emphasized. Come and join us to learn, with other professionals, about this topic.

Non Forum members pay R230 to attend, but why not join the Forum and get great discount on a year’s seminars?

For more information and to book your seat, please contact Magda de Kok on magda.dekok@cpsl.cam.ac.uk