Video: One degree war plan

Peter Willis, Director of CPSL South Africa, interviews Prof. Jorgen Randers and Paul Gilding, long-standing Core Faculty members of the Business & the Environment Programme and thought-leaders at this year’s BEP seminar in Cape Town.

Jorgen and Paul believe is it inevitable that society will at some point in the next decade demand a much more dramatic response to climate change than is currently on the cards, given the reality of the risk it poses. The interview outlines their radical “One Degree War Plan”, which is the type of response they believe will be demanded in due course. The Plan was “premiered” at our BEP seminar and has generated tremendous interest. This insert will be shown on SABC 2′ “50-50″ programme on Monday 1 June at ’09 19:30. (Full transcript below)

Produced by: Charles Moore

TRANSCRIPT
PETER:
I’m talking to Professor Jorgen Randers from the Norwegian School of Management, and Paul Gilding, climate activist and faculty member of the Cambridge Programme for Sustainability Leadership.

I believe you’ve been in some discussions to develop a global strategy in relation to climate change.

PAUL:
We notice this incredible disconnect between what the scientists are saying, which is that we clearly face a risk of catastrophic civilisation and economic collapse. Clearly that’s not the most likely outcome but it’s certainly a possibility. And the science is getting increasingly urgent on that issue, and yet you don’t see that kind of response from the public or from government at all, despite incredible change in the debate in recent years.

And so we thought, well logically there’s just a lag. Because logically will therefore come at some part where there’ll be a great awakening on the issue. And the public and the elites, we think will virtually, suddenly wake up and say, “Oh my God! There is actually a risk of complete economic collapse and very severe consequences for society. We have to fix the problem?”

And so we thought, let’s work out that plan. Then when it’s needed, and which we think, our best guesstimate is kinda 2018 or thereabouts, and we call it the “One Degree War” plan.

PETER:
And why a “One Degree War” plan? What’s the one degree about?

PAUL:
Because the general consensus in the scientific and policy community is that the target, the best we can hope for is a 450 part per million cap on CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere, and that gives us a 50/50 chance of not passing two degrees… two degrees of warming, and two degrees of warming actually is the tipping point in most scientific studies that says beyond that point we get into very scary territory of runaway climate change or runaway greenhouse impacts, and catastrophic, cascading consequences down the line.

PETER:
That sounds like quite a steep challenge, given that most policy’s aiming, if we’re really lucky, at two degrees. So what’s the plan?

JORGEN:
Reduce by 50% during a strong effort, the climate war, from 2018 to 2023, and then a further 15 years where we cut dramatically, and then in a carbon negative territory for the rest of the century.

PETER:
Take me through each of those stages. What’s involved in the climate war? The first five years?

JORGEN:
Step number one is basically to reduce logging by 50%. A second step would be to ban half of the driving. So you basically say to people that you have a certain rationing. So you can drive your car a certain amount but not further. At the same time of course one starts the longer term task of shifting the car fleet from fossil cars, running on gasoline, to electric cars running on CO2-free electricity.

A third activity – you cut airplane flights by 50% again. So you basically strand half of the flights of the world. Much more powerful would be to take the world’s 6000 largest power stations and identify the ones that actually emit a lot of CO2, and close them down.

PETER:
Isn’t there going to be huge resistance? I mean, how could people possibly agree to do these things?

PAUL:
If people could imagine mass starvation because the climate changes so rapidly that food supplies collapse, then having to ration your petrol, suddenly becomes a lot more viable.

And so you’ve got to imagine a context, very clearly of a very scared public – of very scared political leaders who are saying, ‘hang on’. On my watch decisions are going to be made which could lead to the collapse of civilisation, and certainly are going to otherwise lead to some very severe economic collapse. With massive dislocation of people, loss of jobs, loss of value in society. And then suddenly a “planned” reduction of this type, even with that level of sacrifice – like a war – is going to be a price the public is going to support paying, relative to the alternative.

JORGEN:
And so the more you think about this, the more attractive the one degree war actually starts to become, and then you can start asking the question, why doesn’t this happen by itself quickly?

And of course that’s the real core problem. It’s a decision problem, very much more than it’s an execution problem. So, if one simply decided to start the war, implementing it would be fine. There would be little suffering, but there would be great excitement and this is highly do-able. And so it is just a question of getting going. But this, alas, will take some time because there is still not that type of fear in the population.

PETER:
But it seems to me one of the strengths of your proposal is that you’re not saying that this must happen now. You’re saying, we think this needs ten years of preparation, then it will be needed because then people will be ready.

And my… I find myself thinking as I’m sitting here that of course, once this plan gets out and people start debating it and thinking, well how feasible is it and so on, that I think, well why must we wait ten years? Why don’t we perhaps do it in three?

International Faculty for BEP seminar

The annual South African Prince of Wales’s Business and the Environment Senior Executive Seminar takes place from 11 – 14 May 2009 in Cape Town.

Once again the seminar boasts with an impressive line-up of international faculty that will contribute to make it an enriching and valuable experience:

Jorgen Randers

Jorgen holds a PhD in Management from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. From 1974 he established and directed a futures research institute in Oslo, doing early work on sustainable development. He served as President of the Norwegian School of Management from 1981 to 1989; worked in Norwegian business from 1989 to 1993 and served as Deputy Director General of WWF International in Switzerland 1994 to 1999.

Currently, Jorgen is a Professor in Climate Strategy at the Norwegian School of Management, where he teaches Climate Policy, scenario analysis and sustainability. He serves on a number of corporate boards, in Norway and abroad, including the environmental advisory boards of The Dow Chemical Company and British Telecom. In 2005–6 he chaired the Norwegian Commission on Low Greenhouse Gas Emissions who reported to the cabinet on how Norway can reduce its GHG emissions by two-thirds by 2050.

He is co-author of the infamous book: THE LIMITS TO GROWTH (1972).

Jo da Silva

Jo da Silva is a Director and leads Arup International Development which specialises in sustainable development in low income countries particularly in urban environments.

Jo originally joined Arup having studied engineering at Cambridge University. She has combined a career at Arup, focussed on building design, urban re-generation and sustainable development with active involvement in humanitarian relief and international development. She has particular expertise in shelter-housing, urban environments and disaster risk reduction including climate change adaptation.

As a structural/civil engineer has worked on a wide variety of technical projects both in the UK and overseas which have won major awards: Chek Lap Kok Airport, Osaka Museum, National Portrait Gallery, Royal Geographical Society, Ideas Stores, Surestart nursery Mitcham.

She has been a RedR-IHE Member since 1991, and has provided expertise in post-disaster situations including the Rwandan genocide (1994), and as Senior Shelter Co-ordinator for UNHCR in Sri Lanka post-tsunami (2005).

She has considerable project management experience, and proven leadership skills. This includes: project/programme monitoring review, stakeholder consultation, assessment, evaluation and reporting; people and cost management; liaison with local and national government, funding bodies and key stakeholders.

Jo has extensive overseas experience, and has lived and worked in India, Hong Kong, Sri Lanka, Germany, Tanzania. She has travelled extensively in the India sub-continent, South-East Asia, Middle East, Central Asia and Europe.

Paul Gilding

Paul is an independent writer, advisor and advocate for action on climate change and sustainability.

An activist and social entrepreneur for 35 years, his personal mission and purpose is to lead, inspire and motivate action globally on the transition of society and the economy to sustainability. He pursues this purpose across all sectors, working around the world with individuals, businesses, NGOs, entrepreneurs, academia and government.

He has served as CEO of a range of innovative NGO’s and companies including Greenpeace International, Ecos Corporation and Easy Being Green. He has also helped to establish and served on the board of a number of new NGOs including Inspire Foundation, the Australian Business Community Network and Climate Coolers. His speaking and work has taken him to over 30 countries including the Philippines, Papua New Guinea, South America, Europe, South Africa, the USA and Mexico.

7th Annual Southern African Senior Executive Seminar

“Profitability and Sustainability – Conflict or Convergence?”

11 – 14 May 2009. The Vineyard Hotel, Cape Town

We are living in increasingly turbulent and uncertain times, marked by financial system breakdown, accelerating climate change, a widening poverty gap, resource depletion and large demographic shifts. The sustainability of our way of life is no longer assured.

How should senior executives respond to these challenges? What does leadership in these times look like?

The underlying theme of the Prince of Wales’s Business & the Environment seminar is the successful management of change through understanding global trends finding practical ways to integrate social and environmental solutions into management systems and decision-making processes whilst still remaining profitable.

We invite you to join us at this seminar, which is the gateway to membership of the Prince of Wales’s Business and the Environment Programme. Established in 1994, the Programme is recognised as:

• The premier international forum for executive learning and leadership for sustainability.
• A unique source of leading-edge information and expertise.
• A global network for the exchange of ideas and best practice on sustainability.

This annual seminar is the pre-eminent regional opportunity for senior decision-makers to think deeply with their peers about the strategic implications of major emerging environmental and social trends and is held in the United Kingdom, Europe, South Africa the United States and Australia. At each seminar there is a predominance of business executives with a smaller number of senior delegates from government and civil society.

The South African seminar will be running for its 7th year in 2009, from the 11th – 14th of May 2009. The cost is R29,500 +VAT for delegates resident in Africa, ₤3,950 for delegates from overseas. A small number of bursaries is available for appropriately senior civil society and government delegates. The fee covers all seminar costs including accommodation and meals for the 4 days and 3 nights at The Vineyard Hotel, plus membership of the Global Network

Its programme is a rich mixture of contributions from experts and extensive dialogues in small groups, facilitated by a seasoned international faculty. Delegates leave with a fresh sense, not only of the nature and scale of the challenges, but of what they can do in their respective organisations to help minimize the risks and maximize the opportunities suggested by these trends.

Participation is by invitation only, although anybody is welcome to nominate a suitable candidate. Upon receipt of the nomination form a Selection Committee vets the nominations to ensure a balance amongst industry sectors and between business, NGOs and government.

For more information please contact Magda on magda.dekok@cpi.cam.ac.uk, or +27 (0)21 469 4765 or go to the official Cambridge Programme for Sustainability Leadership website at www.cpsl.cam.ac.uk