Jeremy Baskin – SA has compelling reasons to cut hothouse emissions

SA has no detailed climate change policy, as the government acknowledges. It is too late to develop one before next month’s Copenhagen conference. This is disappointing, given that SA is a Group of 20 economy and the world’s 13th-biggest CO² emitter, but not fatal as long as detailed, informed policy measures are in the pipeline.

Most troubling is SA appears to be going into Copenhagen with a position arguably not in the national interest, nor in the interests of combating climate change. It is also hard to square with some of the strong policy signals given by the government to date.

I write as a South African living abroad, who has for the past eight years worked on issues of climate, development and business risk and watched the policy debates in a number of countries closely.

Southern Africa is likely to be among the world’s hardest-hit regions when it comes to the physical, human and economic effects of climate change. These effects will vary between regions, districts, towns and suburbs (the details urgently need more research). But all indications are that changes in temperature, weather patterns and rainfall are likely to be especially nasty in Southern Africa and affect the livelihood and physical existence of millions of people. So SA has a strong self-interest in achieving the maximum possible mitigation and the highest possible global emission-reduction targets.

Without cuts from all major emitters, including developing countries such as China, the biosphere won’t get the reprieve it needs to avoid dangerous climate change. It is vital to encourage deep cuts by China, the US and Europe, which together account for more than 55% of global emissions. Our focus in international talks should be on maximising the extent of overall global mitigation.

In relation to global mitigation targets, it is in our interests to bridge the developed/

developing country divide, notwithstanding our historic and emotional identification with the Third World. There is, of course, a real issue of climate justice. The argument is ethically persuasive that most developing countries are not responsible for historic emissions, and they need emissions headroom to develop and financial assistance to adapt.

This is the position adopted by the African bloc, and argued strongly by, among others, India and China. There is certainly a valid argument to be made by, say, Mali or Bangladesh or even India (which emits less than two tones of CO² per capita a year).

These are all poor countries using less than their share of a scientifically credible global carbon budget. On any consideration of equity, they deserve our support for special consideration. But even China (with about half SA’s per capita emissions) is not a credible member of this group, a fact it implicitly recognises when it makes major emissions- reduction commitments even as it avoids the language of targets.

We delude ourselves to think we are in this special category. We are already a high-emissions country, one of the highest per capita emitters both historically and today. The science now suggests that, if we are to reduce the risk of dangerous climate change, the biosphere can only tolerate concentrations closer to 350ppm than to the more commonly cited 450ppm. This, in turn, equates to a global carbon budget of about two or three tones per capita emissions by 2050, about a fifth of SA’s current emissions.

Other than in the very short term, we will not get away with the argument some in government are voicing, that we be allowed to increase emissions in the name of development and get financial assistance to cut later. We will be accused, as the middle class is in India, of “hiding behind the poor”. Not only will we not get away with it, but we risk undermining our primary interest, which is to see the highest possible global mitigation efforts. The most we can expect, and what we should push for, is some financial assistance to transition to a low-carbon economy now.

It is true that our average emissions, like our middle-income country status, conceal deep inequalities. This is an argument for ensuring our domestic adaptation and mitigation policies, at the very least, reduce inequality. It is not an argument for being given space to ramp up our emissions. Many countries have seen growth and development and still have lower emission profiles today than we do — South Korea, Brazil, and post- war Japan to name but a few.

To be credible in pushing for global reduction SA needs strong domestic mitigation targets. From outside it appears SA may be diluting its previously announced targets. This would be unfortunate. “Growth and development first, climate later” may be in the interests of the fossil fuel industry, or convenient for politicians facing other challenges. But it is a false dichotomy ultimately not in the national economic interest.

The truth is that globally we are seeing the emergence of a price on carbon. The price is still low, but the trend is clear and it is upwards. As one of the world’s most carbon- intensive economies, SA is highly exposed. Traditionally, we have used the lure of cheap electricity to attract investment and mineral- beneficiation projects. We are unlikely to do so in future if our electricity remains carbon intensive. Future aluminium smelters, for example, will gravitate to countries such as Iceland, Brazil or New Zealand, which have extensive geothermal or hydropower.

Our exports are vulnerable. Markets such as Japan, the US, Germany, China and the UK have signalled their carbon pricing intentions. A carbon tariff is emerging. Agricultural producers and component suppliers will have been asked by customers to account for the carbon-intensity of their products. If SA’s wine producers, for example, are not already planning to slash their footprint and lobby the government for low-carbon electricity they should sleep uneasily in the knowledge that their competitors in other countries are.

Given SA’s unemployment, the evidence globally is that renewable energy is substantially more employment friendly per megawatt hour or per rand invested than carbon-intensive alternatives. Viewed from afar, it is impressive SA is putting so much effort into fleshing out its climate policies and starting to pay more attention to the neglected challenge of adaptation. The devil will be in the detail and affected by electricity- sector investment, support for renewables at scale (such as pilot concentrated solar power plants), energy efficiency regulation, forestry policy, tax incentives, and so on.

It is in our interests to transition to a low- carbon economy sooner rather than later. notwithstanding our deep reliance on the resources sector, the best hope for the future is a low carbon one. It is not an easy route, and will involve higher energy prices and difficult structural changes. Handled skilfully it could also help to reduce inequality in the country. Those who argue, in relation to climate, “not us, not much, and not now” are being shortsighted and do the country a disservice.

* Jeremy Baskin is the Director of Cambridge Programme for Sustainability Leadership’s Australian office.

Original article: Jeremy Baskin. Business Day. 9 November 2009. Read more…