Launch of ‘Ubuntu: South Africa’s search for a sustainable future’

CPSL South Africa, in association with the Forum for the Future’s Green Futures publication and the British High Commission, will on the 19th November launch Ubuntu: South Africa’s search for a sustainable future.

Ubuntu is a once-off supplement to the bi-monthly “Green Futures”, the UK’s leading corporate sustainability magazine. It will be distributed internationally and through the Financial Mail’s 20th November issue  in South Africa. It looks at the political and economic hurdles South Africa faces as we square up to the accelerating impacts of climate change and the challenges of energy supply, water scarcity, food security, housing, transport and the 2010 World Cup.

Leading South African sustainability experts have been commissioned to write about these topics and the result reflects top-level analysis and opinion. In addition to reflecting on the challenges the country faces, pioneering examples of emerging sustainability practices in South Africa are showcased.

Ubuntu is edited in South Africa by Monica Graaff, the 2008 Environmental Journalist of the Year and former editor of the award-winning sustainable business magazine, Mind Shift.

The Risks from Sea Level Rise – assessments from Australia & Cape Town

Reuters reported today on an Australian parliamentary committee’s finding that $137bn worth of property in this island continent was at risk from rising sea levels and more frequent storms. 80 percent of Australia’s 21 million people live on the coast and authorities are split on whether to adopt a policy of retreat or defence against rising seas.

The social and economic impact of sea level rise was the topic at our recent Cambridge Resilience Forum session (get the podcast here). A 2008 risk assessment done for the City of Cape Town concluded that within the next 25 years there is an 85% probability of 60,9km2 (2% of the Metro area) being covered by sea for a short period, with an accompanying expected loss of real estate value estimated at just under R20bn. As Prof Geoff Brundrit explained, these estimates are predicated on only a 15 centimeters rise in the sea level. Even such a relatively small rise changes the frequency and intensity of extreme storm events and this causes the damage. A more dramatic sea level rise, when the polar ice caps melt for example, causing coastal areas to be underwater permanently, is not even included in current estimates for the next 30-50 years.

Gregg Oelofse of the City of Cape Town elucidated some of the challenges for government. The possible mitigation strategy of building more storm walls and barriers can actually increase the impact of storm events. The Cape Town study done in 2008 was one of the first in the world and has placed the City on the forefront of planning and thinking about these issues.

Similar to the Australian report, the Forum session also highlighted the importance and complexity of legal liability and insurance cover related to climate change and sea level rise. At the Cape Town event Herman de Meyer, underwriting specialist of Santam, emphasised that insurers need to collaborate with scientists and policy makers to better understand these risks.

The 16 October edition of Engineering News carried an article on the sea level rise Forum session. Read the online article here…

Lester Brown – The rising tide of environmental refugees

Original article: Lester Brown. Earth Policy Institute. 22 October 2009. Read here…

A very though provoking excerpt from the book ‘Plan B 4.0: Mobilizing to save Civilization’. It concludes with these spine chilling words: “During this century we must deal with the effects of trends—rapid population growth, advancing deserts, and rising seas—that we set in motion during the last century. Our choice is a simple one: reverse these trends or risk being overwhelmed by them.”

Our early twenty-first century civilization is being squeezed between advancing deserts and rising seas. Measured by the biologically productive land area that can support human habitation, the earth is shrinking. Mounting population densities, once generated solely by population growth, are now also fueled by the relentless advance of deserts and may soon be affected by the projected rise in sea level. As overpumping depletes aquifers, millions more are forced to relocate in search of water.

Desert expansion in sub-Saharan Africa, principally in the Sahelian countries, is displacing millions of people—forcing them to either move southward or migrate to North Africa. A 2006 U.N. conference on desertification in Tunisia projected that by 2020 up to 60 million people could migrate from sub-Saharan Africa to North Africa and Europe. This flow of migrants has been under way for many years.

In mid-October 2003, Italian authorities discovered a boat bound for Italy carrying refugees from Africa. After being adrift for more than two weeks and having run out of fuel, food, and water, many of the passengers had died. At first the dead were tossed overboard. But after a point, the remaining survivors lacked the strength to hoist the bodies over the side. The dead and the living shared the boat, resembling what a rescuer described as “a scene from Dante’s Inferno.”

The refugees were believed to be Somalis who had embarked from Libya, but the survivors would not reveal their country of origin, lest they be sent home. We do not know whether they were political, economic, or environmental refugees. Failed states like Somalia produce all three. We do know that Somalia is an ecological disaster, with overpopulation, overgrazing, and the resulting desertification destroying its pastoral economy.

Perhaps the largest flow of Somali migrants is into Yemen, another failing state. In 2008 an estimated 50,000 migrants and asylum seekers reached Yemen, 70 percent more than in 2007. And during the first three months of 2009 the migrant flow was up 30 percent over the same period in 2008. These numbers simply add to the already unsustainable pressures on Yemen’s land and water resources, hastening its decline.

On April 30, 2006, a man fishing off the coast of Barbados discovered a 20-foot boat adrift with the bodies of 11 young men on board, bodies that were “virtually mummified” by the sun and salty ocean spray. As the end drew near, one passenger left a note tucked between two bodies: “I would like to send my family in Basada [Senegal] a sum of money. Please excuse me and goodbye.” The author of the note was apparently one of a group of 52 who had left Senegal on Christmas Eve aboard a boat destined for the Canary Islands, a jumping off point for Europe. They must have drifted for some 2,000 miles, ending their trip in the Caribbean. This boat was not unique. During the first weekend of September 2006, police intercepted boats from Mauritania with a record total of nearly 1,200 people on board.

For those living in Central American countries, including Honduras, Guatemala, Nicaragua, and El Salvador, Mexico is often the gateway to the United States. In 2008, Mexican immigration authorities reported some 39,000 detentions and 89,000 deportations.

In the city of Tapachula on the Guatemala-Mexico border, young men in search of jobs wait along the tracks for a slow-moving freight train passing through the city en route to the north. Some make it onto the train. Others do not. The Jesús el Buen Pastor refuge is home to 25 amputees who lost their grip and fell under a train while trying to board. For these young men, says Olga Sánchez Martínez, the director of the refuge, this is the “end of their American dream.” A local priest, Flor María Rigoni, calls the migrants attempting to board the trains “the kamikazes of poverty.”

Today, bodies washing ashore in Italy, Spain, and Turkey are a daily occurrence, the result of desperate acts by desperate people. And each day Mexicans risk their lives in the Arizona desert trying to reach jobs in the United States. On average, some 100,000 or more Mexicans leave rural areas every year, abandoning plots of land too small or too eroded to make a living. They either head for Mexican cities or try to cross illegally into the United States. Many of those who try to cross the Arizona desert perish in its punishing heat. Since 2001, some 200 bodies have been found along the Arizona border each year.

With the vast majority of the 2.4 billion people to be added to the world by 2050 coming in countries where water tables are already falling, water refugees are likely to become commonplace. They will be most common in arid and semiarid regions where populations are outgrowing the water supply and sinking into hydrological poverty. Villages in northwestern India are being abandoned as aquifers are depleted and people can no longer find water. Millions of villagers in northern and western China and in parts of Mexico may have to move because of a lack of water.

Advancing deserts are squeezing expanding populations into an ever smaller geographic area. Whereas the U.S. Dust Bowl displaced 3 million people, the advancing desert in China’s Dust Bowl provinces could displace tens of millions.

Africa, too, is facing this problem. The Sahara Desert is pushing the populations of Morocco, Tunisia, and Algeria northward toward the Mediterranean. In a desperate effort to deal with drought and desertification, Morocco is geographically restructuring its agriculture, replacing grain with less thirsty orchards and vineyards.

In Iran, villages abandoned because of spreading deserts or a lack of water already number in the thousands. In the vicinity of Damavand, a small town within an hour’s drive of Tehran, 88 villages have been abandoned. And as the desert takes over in Nigeria, farmers and herders are forced to move, squeezed into a shrinking area of productive land. Desertification refugees typically end up in cities, many in squatter settlements. Others migrate abroad.

In Latin America, deserts are expanding and forcing people to move in both Brazil and Mexico. In Brazil, some 66 million hectares of land are affected, much of it concentrated in the country’s northeast. In Mexico, with a much larger share of arid and semiarid land, the degradation of cropland now extends over 59 million hectares.

While desert expansion and water shortages are now displacing millions of people, rising seas promise to displace far greater numbers in the future, given the concentration of the world’s population in low-lying coastal cities and rice-growing river deltas. The numbers could eventually reach the hundreds of millions, offering yet another powerful reason for stabilizing both climate and population.

In the end, the issue with rising seas is whether governments are strong enough to withstand the political and economic stress of relocating large numbers of people while suffering heavy coastal losses of housing and industrial facilities.

During this century we must deal with the effects of trends—rapid population growth, advancing deserts, and rising seas—that we set in motion during the last century. Our choice is a simple one: reverse these trends or risk being overwhelmed by them.

Andrew Revkin – Thought Experiments on Birth and Death

At the Business and Environment Programme’s 15-year anniversary held in London on 29 June 2009, Madame Dr. Baige Zhao,Vice Minister: Population and National Family Planning Commission of People’s Republic of China, pointed out that China’s population policies have since 1970 lead to 400 million fewer births in that country. This has significantly reduced the stress on the environment and carbon emissions as the annual CO2 emissions of these 400 million Chinese would have been about 1520 million tons (based on China’s current 3,8 tons per capita per year CO2 emissions).

Against this backdrop, there was a very interesting recent blog by Andrew Revkin of the New York Times. In response to earlier comments by Revkin that programs offering family planning information and services to women seeking smaller families had a climate value by avoiding emissions of greenhouse gases, Rush Limbaugh commented:

This guy from The New York Times, if he really thinks that humanity is destroying the planet, humanity is destroying the climate, that human beings in their natural existence are going to cause the extinction of life on Earth — Andrew Revkin. Mr. Revkin, why don’t you just go kill yourself and help the planet by dying?

In 2010 the Cambridge Resilience Forum will present a session on population and sustainability.

Original article: Andrew Revkin. New York Times. 20 October 2009. Read the article here…

Forum online booking launched

We are very excited to announce that the online booking system for the Cambridge Resilience Forum has now been launched at www.cpsl.co.za/forum/register/ People can now register as members, book for events and pay online.

The very secure online payment system caters for Visa and Mastercard credit cards, but there is also the option to pay via Electronic Fund Transfer (EFT).

We trust that this new system will contribute to the Forum’s objective of offering convenient, flexible  and cost effective opportunities for continuing professional development.

The launch of the online booking system comes as we announce the double treat in November with two exciting sessions each in Cape Town and Johannesburg.

Podcast: Forum sea level rise

A recording of the Cambridge Resilience Forum event on Sea Level Rise held on 30 September 2009 in Cape Town. The format of the event was a panel discussion, moderated by Peter Willis of CPSL. The panelists were:

• Prof. Geoff Brundrit – Special Advisor on Oceans and Climate Change for the National Department of Environmental Affairs
• Gregg Oelofse – Environmental Resource Management, City of Cape Town
• Anton Cartwright – Economist, Econologic
• Herman de Meyer – Underwriting specialist, Santam

To download the podcast click here… or click ‘play ‘below to listen.

Paul Gilding – The Climate Giant Awakes. Have we turned a corner?

Regular readers may be a little surprised by this column. I am regularly arguing that the science shows we are inevitably approaching, or may have past, a tipping point where widespread, rolling ecological and economic crises take hold.

But there’s another critical tipping point, of a very different character – where the world’s political and business leaders turn firmly towards action. Here’s the surprise – I think we may be at this tipping point already.

Scientists have become increasingly alarmed in recent years, as climate change reality has raced ahead of the political response. They point to countless examples of accelerating feedbacks, such as the reduction in the ocean’s ability to absorb CO2 and rapid Arctic melting.

While they regularly point these out to our political masters, many of them express despair at the slow response.

So on what basis do I think the global political system has started to turn?

I think we have recently seen a number of developments that, taken together, indicate a profound shift is under way. When such a shift takes hold, it will rapidly accelerate – with significant implications for campaign and business strategy in this area over the years ahead.

The most significant and encouraging shift is what Tom Friedman in his recent NYT column called the shift from Red China to Green China. The Chinese leadership has for many years been talking about the need to act on climate but has in recent months shown serious potential to lead on this issue.

The rationale for them to do so is certainly there. As they have reeled under the negative economic and social impacts of pollution, China has accepted that the growth model followed by Western capitalism cannot work for them. Will they now pursue clean energy so vigorously they will dominate this new global market? Could climate even provide the issue on which China can manifest its global leadership ambitions?

I increasingly think the answer to both questions is likely to be yes, with far reaching economic and geopolitical implications. There is a good summary of recent developments and this potential for leadership, including China’s potential to see its emissions peak by 2030 in the article “Peaking Duck” by the Centre for American Progress’ Julian L. Wong.

Another important indicator is the recognition in the US political debate that the strength of the Chinese response is an economic threat to the US. The fear is growing that the resistance to change in the US may leave that economy floundering in what will be the largest economic transformation in history. As argued by Tom Friedman in the column referred to earlier, while America is currently strong on innovation, research ultimately follows the market. Friedman pointed out that “America’s premier solar equipment maker, Applied Materials, is about to open the world’s largest privately funded solar research facility — in Xian, China.”

The goal posts are also shifting in the science. An increasing number of scientists are coming to the view that the global CO2 target should be closer to 350ppm rather than 450ppm. In recent months we’ve seen this get global credence in response to the 350.org campaign, with eminent figures like the climate economist Nicholas Stern and the IPCC Chair Pachauri coming out in personal support of the 350 target. They would both be well aware that such a target would require cuts far more dramatic than anything on the table now. With such a goal, the task becomes the elimination of net CO2 emissions from the economy rather than their reduction.

At a deeper level, Stern also lent his considerable intellectual weight to the debate on economic growth, stating what was previously heresy – that economic growth itself must now be questioned. He recently put the case that there were probably only 20 years left for further economic growth before the earth was full.

Equally important as these scientific and political developments are shifts in the business community. While debates are raging in Western economies including in the US, Japan and Australia on climate policy, there are signs of a profound underlying shift emerging in corporate attitudes. Symbolising this in the United States is the rapid withdrawal of major companies from the US Chamber of Commerce over their lobbying against action to regulate greenhouse gases. In recent weeks, major corporates such as PG&E and Apple have resigned, Nike has quit the Board of the organisation and GE and Johnson & Johnson have both publicly distanced themselves from the Chamber’s anti-climate action lobbying efforts.

Another example was a recent initiative by Cambridge Program for Sustainability Leadership’s Corporate Leaders Group, with 500 companies signing on to the Copenhagen Communiqué which endorsed strong action on climate by the world’s governments including keeping warning below 2 degrees and urging early action. “There is nothing to be gained by delay”, the communiqué states.

Many other countries previously in the background on the global climate debate like Indonesia (which is the world’s 3rd largest net emitter due to its extensive deforestation) recently announced its intention to cut emissions by 26% by 2020 compared to Business As Usual and by 41% if they get international financial support to go further. They also believe they can turn their forests into a net carbon sink by 2030.

And of course there is a storm of grassroots campaigning erupting around the world in the lead up to Copenhagen with campaigns like 350.org and many others.

Many of you will have the correct response that these are all only words – that we are yet to see action of real substance. That’s certainly true. Words are early signs, not conclusive evidence. But I think I can smell it now, and when these things do turn, they do so remarkably quickly – as we saw when governments responded to the recent financial crisis.

Of course this does not mean we can relax and it will all be OK! The climate system is now rapidly descending into crisis and the consequences will be felt for decades even with strong action now. What it does indicate however is that we will not be the proverbial boiling frogs who just sit here passively as the system collapses around us. It is only early signs of the turn, but it gives us an indication of what’s coming.

So we mustn’t back off, not even a little bit, with the pressure being applied to the system to encourage change. But we should perhaps reconsider tactics.

I think some of our energy should be focused for example on developing an emergency plan to fix the climate. The science clearly lays out what a stable climate looks like and it requires the elimination of net CO2 emissions from the economy within decades. Any rational analysis says this is going to require the equivalent of a war plan to achieve it. In future columns I’ll be saying a great deal more on that topic.

But for now, take a look around. The world is turning our way and while the crisis is still coming, the crisis response may not be as far behind it as we thought.

Original article: Paul Gilding. www.paulgilding.com. 8 October 2009. Read it…

SAFM interview on Copenhagen Communique

Peter Willis, South African Director of Cambridge Programme for Sustainability Leadership, interviewed on SAFM about the Copenhagen Communique. Interview conducted on 29 September 2009.

To dowload the podcast go here… or to listen click play on the player below.